Thursday, 31 December 2020

Good Bye 2020, Hello 2021!


2020 Global Review 

Australia NSW state emergency due to bush fires.

Hong Kong protest overshadowed by Coronavirus.

Coronavirus outbreak and first “locked down” in Wuhan, China. 

Corona virus named Covid-19. 

Covid-19 Epicentre in China, Korea, Italy, and later globally, and later announced as pandemic. 

Quickest stock market crash from 20 Feb to 20 March. Dow crash crashed over 30% within 1 month.

Tokyo 2020 Olympic officially postponed 

Oil Price turns Negative, first time in history on 20 Apr 2020.

More fiat currencies in the world than ever!

Liverpool FC crowned champions of English League after 30 years. 

Donald Trump ordered bans on Tik Tok and WeChat.

Japanese bulk carrier Wakashio disaster in Mauritius, spilling 1,000 tonnes of oil.

Japan longest serving PM Shinzo Abe resigned, citing health reason. 

Yoshihide Suga became Japan PM. 

Joe Biden defeated President Donald Trump to become the 46th president of the US.  

Pfizer announced vaccine with efficacy rate above 90%. 

By November, Dow recovered back to 29K. 

Telsa rose more than 700% within a year. 

Bitcoin hitting all time high of 28KUSD

Covid infecting over 78 million globally and over 1.7 million deaths reported.  

Global stock market return to all time high after one of the worst crisis


2020 Singapore Review 

Budget 2020: SGD6.4B 

First confirmed case of Coronavirus reported on 23 Jan 2020, tourist from Wuhan

STI crash from 3200 in Feb to below 2300 as of end March. 

Stimulus Budgets - Resilience SGD48B, Solidarity SGD5.1B, Fortitude Budget SGD33B 

First ever Circuit Breaker locked down began on 7 April. 

Wearing mask mandatory when leaving home, 15 April

Hin Leong USD4 billion debt pile and fraud case

Dormitory Covid cases spikes 

Lifting Covid measures, Phase 1 (2 June); Phase 2 (19 June); Phase 3 (28 Dec)

SIA raised SGD8.8 billion via rights and convertible bonds

Goh Chok Tong and Low Thia Kiang retired from politics

Polling day for General Election on 10 July 2020

PAP won 61.4%, but lost Aljunied, Hougang and Sengkang

Pritam Singh officially designated Leader of Opposition, 11 July 

Singapore Loh cousins' scandalous spotlight

Robinsons closing down after 162 years

Home-Fix’s bankruptcy 

Liew Mun Leong’s maid scandal

12 cup cakes Daniel Ong and ex-wife Jamie Teo faces charges

Covid infecting over 58 thousand with over 29 deaths reported 

Stock and property market left unscathed after one of the worst crisis


Let’s hope that 2021 will be a better year. 

Happy New Year and I wish everyone a Healthier, Happier and Wealthier 2021 ahead. 


Thursday, 24 December 2020

Alibaba Share Price Drop – An Undervalue Gem?

Alibaba Share Price took a big tumble today of more than 8% when China authority started an investigation into alleged monopolistic practices at Alibaba and summoned affiliate Ant Group to a high-level meeting over financial regulation. 

Seeing this as an opportunity, I continue to accumulate Alibaba as I feel that the stock is greatly undervalued, despite being one of the most profitable companies in the world. 

Alibaba has FCF of USD24B over revenue of USD90B (27%), comparable to Apple as being a cash cow. In comparison, Amazon has a FCF of USD27B over revenue of USD322B (8.4%), that pales Alibaba. 

Despite the profitability, Alibaba’s PE (ttm) is a mere 25 (today’s HKSE price) that is way cheaper than Apple’s 40 and Amazon’s 93. 

Alibaba IPOed at USD68 more than six years ago, and price rise is less than 400% today. In comparison, Amazon share price has grown more than ten times in the last six years. 

Furthermore, Alibaba has most of income coming from its “core commerce” operations with only less than 10% coming from its cloud’s revenue. Last quarter 3Q2020, Alibaba reported cloud computing brought in revenue of USD2.24B, displaying a remarkable 60% yoy rise. That was faster than Amazon Web Service’s 29% yoy revenue rise and Microsoft Azure’s 48% growth in the Sep 2020 quarter.

Read : Alibaba cloud growth outpaces Amazon and Microsoft as Chinese tech giant pushes for profitability

So do you think Alibaba is undervalued? 


Wednesday, 23 December 2020

Rolf 2020 (H2F3) in Review

Year 2020 will definitely be remembered as one of the weirdest years in history with Covid altering the way we live. The first locked down took place in China Wuhan, followed by several other countries including our very own Circuit Breaker locked down in Singapore for close to two months from April to June . 

International traveling is restricted with planes grounded. Video conferences, Work from home (WFH) and home based learning becoming part of our lives. While the lock down is horrible, it provides ample time for family members to stay as close as possible. 

(Click here for what does H2F3 (Health, Hobbies, Family, Finance and Friends) means. Refer here for my last H2F3 update in 2020Q3.)


HEALTH, FAMILY, FRIENDS 

For me, everyone in the family ended the year healthy, and no addition of new family member this year, unlike in the past trio sets of three years, last being 2017, where we expanded our family! My health got a scare in the last quarter or so with bad gastric. However, after a minor procedure and medications, my latest test result this month shows that my health is back to normal.  

Family relationships is still good, but the increased time together mainly at home, inevitably led to more friction compared to previous years.  Family dinners outside and us visiting friends had been drastically cut due to the 5 pax rule. Nonetheless, we often had my best friends and kids invited into the house for dinner. 

FINANCE 

This year, yet another restructuring took place in our company, and yet another survival of career for me, having survived the 2009 GFC and the 2015-2016 Oil Crisis layoffs in my career. 

My wife resigned from her job after 12 years, after her firm asked her to take a big pay cut being in the MICE industry. We praise God that she managed to find a new job almost instantly, and it was one with better company culture, better salary, lesser workload, and above all, a very profitable company. As good as a dream job come true considering the circumstances. 

My investment portfolio (excl. CPF linked investment) grew 27% this year, compared to 12% last year. The increase come mainly from higher household income, and lower expenses due to mortgage freeze, lower car expenses as I paid off my car COE last year, and no vacation this year, resulted in higher net cashflow savings. 

Excluding savings, my investment return grew 14.5% yoy, as a result of crypto, precious metals and stocks returns. In terms of absolute value, it is not shy from last year’s return. 



My portfolio is greatly revamped this year.  I took profit off my precious metals and unleased my cash war-chest to increase my stock portfolio. As the year closes, I am 70% shares, 15% cash and 15% precious metals (8% gold and 7% silver)

 


HOBBIES

I am back blogging again this year, due to the comparatively less hectic work this year. Workout intensified during circuit breaker as I got my slight 4-6 packs, but lost it again after that. Urggghhh… My table tennis games with friends this year reduced greatly due to the Covid restrictions, while Netflix screen time increased a little tad too much. Not as ideal! 

For now, 

We are looking forward to Phase 3 for the 8 pax rule to have our entire family dinner in restaurants and visiting friends again. And of course, the hope and prayers for the effectiveness of the vaccines bringing the world back to normal again. 

I also wish everyone a Merry and Healthy  X’mas and a Happy New Year 2021 ahead.  








Tuesday, 15 December 2020

Rolf’s Portfolio Updates – Dec 2020

PORTFOLIO

Have been accumulating shares each month throughout the unforgettable unprecedented year of Covid. Now, I am 70% shares and 12% cash, with 18% precious metals. Do not think I will increase my stock portfolio drastically now, other than my monthly excess buy from 2021 onwards. 

May possibly pare down metals (silver in particular) to unlock some profits, and also to increase cash for potential stock opportunities going forward. 



MY STOCK PORTFOLIO

I am still bullish on Tech especially China ones. 

Felt that Alibaba is greatly undervalued and keeps on accumulating below 255. Also bought into more Meituan when prices dropped below 280. Took small profits off Apple, Amazon and Microsoft to buy into other shares. 

Still on China, I also accumulated on CNOOC on top of Sinopec. Felt that these oil giants are still greatly undervalued despite the vaccine discovery news and China's economical recovery. Furthermore, the dividends are "delicious"! 

Also, bought a little into Koolearn, a Chinese online Education company. Koolearn is a subsidiary of New Oriental Education & Technology, one of the largest private education companies in China. XPeng, the equivalent of Tesla in China together with NIO, also became part of my portfolio. 

Since I own Pfizer before the news of Vaccine's discovery, I was entitled to shares of Viatris. Bought some shares Viatris to round it up. 

As a Singaporean, I also supported SEA Limited, a Singapore based company. Keppel DC Reit and Mapletree Industrial Trust share prices slide due to the sector rotation of funds from Tech to Covid-affected stocks. Believing in their future regardless of vaccine or not, I nibbled into KDC and MIT. I sold off Keppel and SPH Reit and some of STI ETF



I have a whooping of 31 different stocks now. Not sure if it is too many. But, one thing I am sure, is these are the stocks that I love owning for now.