Sunday, 7 June 2020

Recent Stocks Purchased - Should we Take Profit Now in view of the Stock Market Rally?

The market has rallied and you can see so many topics of a V-shaped post Covid recovery.

Since March, I started buying stocks amid in a cautious smaller, and slower manner. Refer to my earlier article which I explained why and how we should invest. 


STOCKS PURCHASED SINCE MARCH

STI ETF
SPH Reit
CapitaRetail China
Netlink NBN Tr
SGX
Vicom
Valuetronics
Sinopec Corp (HK)
Exxon Mobil (US)

QUESTION NOW – SELL OR HOLD?

Almost all the stocks shown green-coloured increase? Should I sell it to realise profit?

MY 2016 EXPERIENCES

Recalling my own experiences in 2016, see below posts:


DECIDE ON YOUR PERSONAL SITUATION

Back then, there was oil crisis, and my superior together with many colleagues in the company was removed. I was very busy having to take on their responsibilities. The situation in my career was volatile, but at the same time extremely busy with hectic traveling. Hence, I decided to take profit in view of the personal situation. Refer below posts:

Therefore, you should consider your personal situation to decide if you should sell or hold your shares? For example, you reckon your job or your spouse’s job is not stable now. The likelihood of reduction of household income is high in coming months. Then, it is better to sell to take profits and keep more cash? On the contrary, if you are single or you are flushed with ample cash that you can wait for market recovery, then perhaps hold if you think the stocks have long term future?

WHAT IS THE RESAON WHEN YOU FIRST BOUGHT THE SHARES?

Very often, we forget to ask ourselves what is the initial reason we buy the stocks? We were always muddled by the ups and downs of the stock market, that we make recent decision because of a particular piece of news.

Stick to your plan. If the initial intention of buying the stocks is mainly for trading to take profits in short time with a targeted price, then sell! If the initial intention is to buy and hold as a value stock and reap dividends, then hold!

BALANCING YOUR OVERALL PORTFOLIO

Make sure that your overall portfolio is balanced in terms of cash, stocks, bonds metals, etc. My earlier article gave you an idea of how to balance your portfolio. 


If you think that this stock rally is a good time for you to balance your portfolio to take more percentage of shares into cash or precious metals or bonds, then go ahead. If your portfolio is already heavy with cash, metals etc, and you still have room for shares, then hold.

CONCLUSION

I cannot tell you what you should do in relation to your portfolio. But I think what you can do is to ask yourself, what is the reason of you buying the stock in the first place? Trading or long term hold?

Follow your initial plan.

In Feb 2016, STI falls below 2.6K and within one month, it rises to 2.9K, and the Index goes on to rally above 3.5K over the next two years by early 2018. If you will have taken profit back then in Mar 2016 of 10%, you will miss out the further 40% rally in the next two years, excluding dividends.

However, if holding on to the stocks means you are so uncomfortable with the lack of cash in view of a situation that you may lose your job, then my advice is to be on the safe side with sufficient cash.

In another situation, in Mar 2008, STI hit 2.8K after falling from 3.8K six months earlier. Within two months, STI rallied back to above 3.2K. But from May 2008 onwards, STI will continue to free-fall to 1.6K by Oct 2008.


3 comments:

  1. Your last paragraph are comparing this crises with the GFC which are different in nature. No crises are the same.

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    Replies
    1. It is common knowledge that no both crises is the same. The word "same" is also very subjective. E.g. do you reckon AFC is the same as GFC? In some sense yes, because both are financial crisis, but of course they are not exactly the same as the causes and the impact are different.

      Anyway, I think you misunderstand the article because the last para is not a comparison to the crisis of 2008. It is a contrary description to the two paragraph earlier mentioning of the Feb 2016 chart movement, to depict that market can goes up but can also go down, and we cannot predict or even be so sure.

      My investment thinking is not to predict the up or the down, but to have a method that even if market move up or down, you are not drastically beaten, and yet manage to profit from it.

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