Saturday, 18 April 2020

China Recovery or Plummet – Hear from the China Chinese themselves?

For more than a decade since early 2000s, I had been traveling to China for business until there was a change in the last few years when China is excluded from my work scope. Places in China I have stepped foot include, Beijing, Tianjin, Qingdao, Yantai, Nanjing, Shanghai, Nantong, Wuxi, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Fujian etc. In the process, I had also made many friends.

Last week, I contacted a few China Chinese friends from different parts of China to find out the situation in China. Just to clarify, none is from Wuhan. The response is almost unified that life has more or less gone back to normal. Everyone has been at work for more than a month already. Even colleagues from Wuhan has returned to their posts. Work meetings continue, outings continue… Was told those who want to wear masks go ahead, those who do not feel like it, it is ok. But in work place, not many people wear masks. There is a general consensus that Covid-19 new infections are so low. And the new infections are mostly imported from border of China-Russia that are so far away from them, because China is after all so big a country.

However, everyone is still concern about the second wave of infections. More importantly, people are worried about business perhaps more than the second wave. Knowing the Chinese, the same feeling from before is still present now, such that the people are generally very confident and positive about their economy long term prospects and most of them felt that they can rely on their government to resolve any crisis.

CapitaRetail China Trust (CRCT)

You can say that I am influenced by my Chinese friends… my hands itched and nibbled on CapitaRetail China Trust. Below is an article I wrote in 2014 on CRCT.





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10 comments:

  1. Now is to watch China market on how it recovers

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    Replies
    1. Scenario 1) Fast Recovery 2) Slow Recovery 3) 2nd Wave
      Reckon China will recovers much faster than any other countries in the world, because <100K infected of 1 over billion population, and their unemployment is definitely lower than USA. Even if they have high unemployment, the many State Owned Enterprise should be able to provide jobs more than Western world. Just my opinion.

      Delete
  2. The time to buy China was back in Feb. That's where you had the liquidation phases, like what SG & US experienced in Mar.

    But anyway there's still time for the recovery, as much of China still needs the rest of the world to re-build their orders & revenue. Even the local services companies indirectly depend a lot on the external exports for positive consumer demand pickup.

    So will be trendless (some days/weeks up & vice versa) until most of US & western Europe re-opens.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Time the market exactly at the lowest probably every time during a crisis, only rare few in this world can do it. Maybe only Bill Ackman, not even WB, Ray Dalio, or any you can name of to enlighten?

      And to be honest from a risk perspective, in Feb to go right into China can be also a risky move. If investors do that, it is more gambling on 50-50 than real vision. Unless you are hedge funds who short and at the same time hedge upside.

      Always easier said than done!

      This is something I am so poor on. So I tend to focus on the fundamentals of the global big picture, and my personal on the ground experience, then on individual companies' fundamentals. Guess that is always the much slower way than perfect timing.

      The pandemic will take time globally to recover, and it is obvious that we know every single country will depend on demand or export to recover. But that said, one country who can recover the fastest comparatively is China if there is no 2nd wave. Don't you think so? Or you think USA or EU will recover faster than China?



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    2. Well, I bought China/HK/ Taiwan/South Korea in Feb, and India/US/SE Asia in Mar. So I'm hoping the whole world will recover. Which I'm quite confident within 2 years.

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    3. That is great Anonymous commenter. Good to have a masterclass investor around.

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    4. No lah, I'm mentally prepared for markets to drop another 20% or 30% from here (but I suspect any retests won't be so severe, maybe 10% to 20% drops).

      That's the price for longer term returns.

      I also had to suffer for being "early" in Oct & Nov of 2008.

      Delete

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