Sunday, 5 April 2020

3rd Stimulus by Singapore Government to be announced coming Monday - Good or Bad?






COVID-19: Heng Swee Keat to announce third round of support measures in new 'Solidarity Budget'



https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/coronavirus-covid-19-heng-swee-keat-solidarity-budget-12611084


Stock market will receive another lifeline on Monday!

It's gonna be another drawn down from the reserves.

And if Covid-19 persists longer, it will be 4th, 5th, 6th .... where does it ends?

Let's hope Covid-19 will end soon.

Heard from non-reliable source that our Government has reserves of trillions and trillions of SGD, so no worries! Again, the one who said this is non-reliable Singaporean source. Our PM already expressed his concern, but typical Singaporean is always optimistic.

Not that optimistic is not good, but there are two kinds of optimism. 1) Cautiously optimistic preparing for the future and 2) Blindly optimistic and just deceiving oneself that everything will be fine.

2 Scenarios

A) Covid ends before June, and everything goes back to normal for Singapore. Everyone is happy and stock markets rally again, and Government back to budget positive and able to retrieve our budget spendings this year just within the next 1-2 years.

B) After Covid-19, the aftermath of this pandemic is so big, in which it is going to be even worst than Covid-19 itself. The entire USA and EU will be licking on the wounds of the shut down. So many people unemployed which give rise to protests and unrests all over the world. Singapore being an open economy who depends so much on USA and EU got really hurt, and more and more businesses shut gradually.

Government announced another, and another, and another rounds of stimulus.

C) Worst of all, eventually the Currency Crisis come. This is because Fed and ECB been printing too much money, that the abundance of liquidity can only inflate asset pricing, but cannot trigger spendings of the masses. Next, countries will start to send money direct to our bank accounts. Even if this happened, middle or lower income will be cautious of spendings as they are struggling with survival. Still unable to stimulate spendings. Also, since the small percentage of rich controlled a wealth of global wealth, the rich will only gets richer and richer with the stimulus. The poor will gets poorer and poorer which is also the majority. So the rich can only increase spendings by that much. They do not need to buy 10-20-30 extra houses if nobody is going rent. They do not need more TVs, more Furnitures etc.

And since spendings is one's income in today's economy, with reduced spendings, the entire economy which is built of the basis of debts will eventually collapsed.

Then the million dollar question is really "how much we have in our reserves?"
Can our government saves every business and prevent them from being broke.


Ray Dalio Says US Corporations Will Lose $4 Trillion to Coronavirus

The amount of money needed globally could notch up to $12 trillion, he said.

https://www.ai-cio.com/news/ray-dalio-says-us-corporations-will-lose-4-trillion-coronavirus/



6 comments:

  1. Instead of cash to our bank account, gives vouchers with expiry for us to spend. :-)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Not enough if in recession, because voucher only buy essential. No govt on earth will give people excess to buy nicer furniture, nicer car, or nicer property. so how to solve to non-spending in situation of fear in crisis?

      We already seen no matter how govt promise sufficient food, the whole world still rush to supermarket to stock up.

      Delete
  2. Definitely less than $3 trillion. Realistic amount will be between $1.5 to $2 trillion.

    But no matter how much, if open taps non-stop will run out eventually.

    Anyway I am optimistic of the following:-
    1. Standardised effective treatment that is used worldwide should more or less be confirmed by Q3 2020. So far those who passed away in SG tends to have multiple pre-existing illnesses. Our local treatment relies heavily on 2 strong anti-virals used for HIV: lopinavir & ritonavir. Others talk about hydroxychloroquine + arythromycin.

    2. Vaccine that is at least 60%-70% effective will be available by Q1 2021.

    3. Herd immunity being gained by populations around the world.

    4. Flattening of the curve thru stricter lockdowns. This will really screw up the economy for the next 6-9 months, but getting control of the virus spread & preventing overwhelming of hospitals is Number 1. A study of the 1918-1919 Spanish Flu found that cities that implemented tougher lockdowns suffered sharper & deeper recessions, but recovered faster than cities that didn't practise tough lockdowns.

    I'm following Spain & Italy rate of infections & daily deaths. There seems to be some stabilisation of the curve.

    We think that what is happening is unprecedented. But actually have happened hundreds of times throughout human history. Just that most were not documented. Even in the last pandemic in 1918, a lot of the studies & learning points have been forgotten.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Spur,

      Do you have a website to track saying our reserves is trillions.
      I just posted a new article, and check in MAS that our international reserves is USD280B. Our Nett Asset - Liab is SGD275B.
      Not sure if this is a good way, but I have checked that these are the few ways with sources. Otherwise maybe we can use GNI which is USD80 plus K multiply by population, which gives over 400 B USD.

      There are few scenarios. Either just the virus outbreak which eventually will end. Or the aftermath, which was mentioned in my article.

      I hope it is just the Covid-19, because it is definitely less scary, although scary enough! We should be concern, but that does not mean we are undermining SG ability. Like PM said, which I agreed, if any countries that can pull through this crisis, one of them is definitely SG!

      AFTERMATH - MOST SCARY!!!

      1918 Spanish flu brought poverty into Europe in the post WW1. Double whammy of war and flu. And with less than 20 years later Great Depression and WW2. Same situation that after WWI and Spanish Flu, there is plenty of Money creation by debasing Gold.

      USA basically becomes rich, when Europe becomes poor after WW1 because of US is producing and exporting everything to Europe during the war.

      Ok, it is 20 years after WW1 or Spanish Flu, and of course that is more serious.

      But 20 years later, I guess I should be still around. Hehe... and my several kids are definitely still around. So this is my concern.

      Not so much about Covid-19, which can be scary and become part of us, if no vaccines is found, just like AIDS. But I think we can overcome Covid-19.

      Delete
    2. Also, while the flu or pandemic happened many times in history, which is not documented, similarly, the FIAT currency collapse happened since thousands of years ago and happened many times in history. It goes back to the old days, when Kings actually melt the gold and mix with copper to make more money. Until one day, the coin is so copper that people knew that something is wrong and everyone stop holding coins and hold food and staples, which cause a rush and shortage and collapse.

      Also, during WW2, Japanese notes become banana notes. Also German Mark. Also Zimbawe, also Venezuela.

      This is more worrying to me, and equally the virus.

      Delete
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