It's been more than
three weeks since my last post. This is probably one of the longest breaks
between posts for me since I started blogging in Mar 2014. Perhaps, it
will be the case going forward at least for a while. To start, let us
recapitulate the last update on my portfolio, market and life, here.
Portfolio Brief
Very similar to last
update except I further disposed more stocks to accumulate cash during this
period. Super Group acquisition news and GLP rumored sale caused their
stock prices to surge and I took opportunity to offload.
Bad news
I also accepted
substantial % losses in Overseas Edu as I see no sign of short-term recovery in
the International School market. The worst news of all is my stake in Swissco
(trading halt now). Mentally, I am prepared for total loss.
Good news
I am feeling very
comfortable now with less than 10% (current value) of my total portfolio
holding in stocks. Very little action and likely to remain the same in the short term.
Work
Bad news
It needs no
explanation of the market as almost all companies within the sectors are
struggling. There are no sight of the bottom yet even after two years of
plummeted oil price.
I speak with
confidence that more than half of the people I know working the industry have
already left. It is almost entering a state of depression now, as many people I
know in the industry are feeling so stressful and fearful to lose their jobs. It
does not matter how hard you work, because there are simply only a handful of
projects.
Good news
I too am being demoralized.
Nonetheless, I try not to succumb to fear and worries of losing the rice bowl. Those
who follow my blog for a while know that the pessimistic and prudent views I
taken since last year definitely help me to prepare myself financially and
mentally. In these times of uncertainty, a well constructed plan B need to
be in place so that a new career endeavor can be activated if plan A fails.
That said, I shall not leave to my own will, but for things to happen by
itself, if it does happen.
Market
Good news
Things still does not
look so bad on the surface with no sign of crashing. Wait a
minute.... this article is actually drafted before Trump’s victory!
The STI did shave off
a tad % after Trump’s triumph, but it quickly rise again. Signs of optimism? Anyway,
I am not extremely perturbed by Trump’s victory. I am neither supporters of him
nor Clinton.
Bad news
Trump’s victory signals
the end of TPP. This worries Singapore leaders. A seminar I attended in January
this year had Mr. Kishore
Mahbubani mentioned the importance of TPP to Singapore. Refer
here.
For the market, I take
a quite different views compared to many others. I reckon if there are no signs
of stock market sharp crashing, instead of something to cheer about by many, it
is actually even worse.
In my opinion, the
Global Economy is entering into a perilous state that many leaders in this
generation will have neither experience nor capability to tackle it
effectively. Trump, Clinton or Obama…. Nah! Even Ronald Reagan or Clinton of
the past can do very little! Whoever leads, pale in comparison to the big
global picture now.
For Singapore, during
AFC or GFC we saw a sharp crash to the bottom and the quick recovery. I
anticipate it to be different this time! An unusual situation seems
imminent, where the entire world economy will be seeing a slow and gradual decline
over a prolonged period of time. It appears to me that it will difficult to predict
the bottom
unlike the last few major economic crises!
Therefore leaders of
all countries are going to find it so tough to cope, and some weaker leaders
are likely to make decisions that only appear effective in the short term but
catastrophic in the long term.
I hope not, but we
shall see.
Life
Bad news
Anyway I had been
spending lots of time meeting many friends recently. To my sadness and
surprise, there were as many as three divorce cases I heard.
To add to the woes, two
friends are seriously ill without immediate cure, and many are in work and
financial related distress and anguish.
It is almost liken an
evil spiritual storm coming like a whirlwind destroying health and family
relationships, where just few years ago, people are still cheering for
exponential growth of material wealth. All
good things have to come to an end?
Good news
Relationships with
family and friends are very strong as we (my family) were revealed to the true
meaning in life.
I also had been very happy doing Parent Volunteer work in my child's future potential school, getting to know many nice parents in the process of doing so.
The spiritual wealth my family experienced lately also overshadowed that of the material wealth. There are indefinitely more
love, peace and joy and true freedom in my life, rather than just financial
freedom.
The pursuit of
financial freedom can often lead us finding one freedom, and yet falling into
the enslavement of another without knowing it.
Last and most
important of all, a new addition to the family is coming soon. :-)
