Tuesday, 22 December 2015

Will Oil Price crash to $20 or rebound to $70 in 2016?

Brent crude breaks below $36 a barrel in 11-year low.

$20 a barrel in 2016?

Goldman Sachs predicted that a glut of oil supply will keep oil price low for the next 15 years and possibility of testing the bottom at $20 a barrel. Goldman’s long-term forecast for crude is at $50 a barrel.

$70 a barrel in 2016? 

Counter-intuitively, Energy mogul 87-year-old billionaire T. Boone Pickens said few months ago that oil will be back into the $70 range by the end of the year.

"We thought we had seen the bottom and we didn't, and the reason why I think I missed is because the decline in production when the rigs shut down was not as severe as I thought it would be," Pickens said on a bloomberg program. "Yes, we're coming down, and in another six months we will be down at least another half-million barrels."

Although Pickens prediction is incorrect having seen oil dip further down now, he added that his estimate is going to be only 6 months off based on his interview in Nov this year.

He believed that supply will go down soonest and drive prices back up again.

The most recent is early this month when Pickens was in a TV program with Carl Icahn. Both think oil will go up. Icahn is more prudent and does not want to put a time on it. Pickens is bold to predict oil price will rebound to $70 within six-month time.

What do you think and what will you do?

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  2. Hi Rolf

    Merry Xmas in advance.

    Where do you think it will go since you worked in the sector? There's probably only two directions it can go isn't it.

    1. Hi B,

      Merry Xmas.

      If I know I will not need to work in the sector anymore! Haha... 50/50 means it's more like a gamble to take sides!

      Yes, either up or down, but up n down does not mean $20 or $70, and does not indicate the time factor which Pickens boldly predicted.

      The price is of less significant to me than the time. Even if Oil price rebound to $xxx, will Oil co ramp up immediately all projects? Will oversupply of rigs/vessels disappear all at once?

      More importantly is will people not get retrenched?

      Having said that, it's good to experience down period, because that is when u learn the most.

      It's challenging time for at least 1.5 years or more, that I dare to bet!

  3. Rolf,

    I wouldn't bet against T. Boone Pickens.

    He made tons riding Natural Gas to USD10 a few years ago ;)

    That's the beauty of investing/trading to achieve.

    Look at T. Boone Pickens, Carl Icahn, Jim Rogers, Marc Faber, etc.

    I'm not worried nothing to keep me intellectually occupied when I get even more younger at heart ;)

    1. Hi SMOL,

      Consider these people at that kind of level n age with tonnes of experience n successful track records, if their sentiments are coherent, there must be more to it, than just pure optimism.

      Hmmm..I do prefer to be intellectually occupied most of the times, but not necessary in financial charts or reports. :-)

  4. Replies
    1. haha.... good for the industry n net exporter, and of course those who own relevant stocks.

      U have my vote!

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