Friday, 31 October 2014

Shale Oil & China Slowdown – Let’s hear from Jim Rogers

Oil price free-fall recently, reactions from the world is clear – Weak outlook, Price to Fall further. One main reason is over-supply resulted from the production of Shale Oil in USA.

Rewind and hear what Jim Rogers had to say about 1Demand Vs Supply 2) Shale Oil & Gas 3) China Economy. I extracted part of the Q&A session within “International Business Times” dated 10 Mar 2014 as follows.

Supply and Demand

Q: You’ve argued that commodities are always driven fundamentally by supply and demand. But have commodity prices been swayed lately by apparently external factors, like U.S. monetary policy or bond tapering?

Jim Rogers’ Ans: Ultimately everything is supply and demand. If tapering occurs, that certainly influences demand, if nothing else. So ultimately it’s all supply and demand. Different things affect supply and demand. War affects demand, for instance. It also affects supply. Money printing affects demand certainly, though it doesn’t affect supply so much. In the end, whatever happens, most things affect and influence supply and demand, including tapering.  

Shale Oil and Gas

Q: What are your thoughts on developments in recent years that have unlocked shale oil and gas? Some have said the U.S. energy boom is the most important development in political economy in decades.

Jim Rogers’ Ans: I would urge people to go out and see what’s happening in the field. Yes, it was all very exciting in the beginning. But now we’re finding out that those wells are very short-life wells.

Production dropped by 40 to 60 percent in the first year, and the demand for rigs to drill in the shale fields is down 75 percent in the last couple of years. The demand for pumps is down 50 percent. So it’s not as much fun as we’d hope it would be. In some countries such as Poland, people have given up their shale leases, because they’ve realized it’s just not so simple. I read all the hype, but again I’d urge people to go into the fields and see what’s actually happened, rather than reading what journalists hype. Natural-gas prices have quadrupled since the bottom.

They’re not quadrupling because this is the most important thing in several decades.

US Net Exporter of Energy?

Q: But if the U.S. can become self-sufficient in energy or a net exporter, as some foresee, won’t that be very significant?

Jim Rogers’ Ans: Well, if cows can fly, that’s very significant too. But present indications are that’s not going to happen. But if that happens, sure. That would change things dramatically. Like if Germany became a net exporter of energy, my God! That’d be one of the most significant things of the century, not of the decade.

But the fundamentals indicate it’s not going to happen, despite the current hype. Demand for drilling rigs is down 75 percent. Why do you think the rigs are down? If it was so wonderful, everybody would be drilling like crazy. Gas prices have quadrupled. People would be out there drilling like crazy people, when prices have quadrupled. The facts on the ground are: these [developments] are not as exciting as we thought at first.

Now, hopefully, mankind will figure out a way to overcome the technological problems. Mankind always has. But so far we have not been able to figure that out.

The same applies to shale oil. Shale oil production drops even faster than shale gas. This doesn’t even get into the whole environmental question of water, etcetera. [e.g. concerns over environmental damage caused by fracking]. I have no idea whether the environmentalists are right or not. 

China Economic Slowdown

Q: What about demand for natural resources? The talk of a Chinese economic slowdown, could that alone derail commodities?

Jim Rogers’ Ans: Well, if you take out a big buyer of anything, of course it has an effect. You cut demand anywhere, and it hurts. But remember, the Chinese economy is one-tenth the size of Japan’s, Europe and America [combined]. The Chinese have done a brilliant job. But America, Europe and Japan are 10 times bigger than the Chinese economy.

The Japanese, the Americans and the Europeans are moving heaven and earth to increase demand in those countries. Those countries as a group are more significant than China.

China is trying to cool off, and it should. My gosh, it should – I hope they do cool down. But that’s not the end. That’s not the whole demand story in anything, and certainly not in commodities.

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Wednesday, 29 October 2014

Reminder - Why You Should NOT Buy a Stock during Earnings Seasons

It’s earnings seasons again and listed companies are busy preparing to announce their 3Q results.

Should we Buy stocks in anticipation of good earnings results prior to announcement?

Please read my previous post for answer.

Monday, 27 October 2014

Rebalancing My Investment Portfolio

It’s yet another busy month in October, both in work and investments. Last week was traveling and prior to that was off-office hour stock scouring after the Bearish stock markets. Made some buy and sell positions as follows.


Suntec Reit – Partial sale to reduce my biggest holdings (before the sale) and unlock profits. This is to provide funds to buy other stocks during times of distress. Nevertheless Suntec is still one of my substantial holdings.  

KSH Holdings – Complete sale due to not so favorable outlook with declining earnings, soft construction and property sector outlook. However balance sheet and cash position is still strong with continual diversification of its business. The sale is mainly to unlock small profits to take advantage of other better opportunity stocks as deem by me.


Sembcorp Ind – Stock price hit 52 weeks low and I picked up at S$4.78 at est PER of 11x with a dividend yield of 3%. Decent I thought for a Temasek owned conglomerate. The falling price is primarily due to pessimism in marine business, as result of bleak oil price outlook. Net profits diversification of 51% utilities and 39% marine seems a better bet than it’s subsidiary Sembmarine who also suffered substantial decline in price. Marine is not entirely doomed to failure with strong backlog order / balance sheet and continual orders win. I also like it’s FPSO penetration lately with OOG-Teekay Libra project. Brazil Petrobras had indicated that it’s FPSO thirst is not going to cease in the short term.

OUE – Another stock hitting 52 weeks trough and I get the bargain at S$2.05 at almost 50% discount its net asset value. Price to Book is at 10 year low with potentials to unlock more asset value after transferring to Trust. Read more from B’s blog here. Thanks B.

Ezion / Nam Cheong / Swissco - Oil and Gas stocks share prices drop like a falling knife. I caught three stocks which I reckon that are able to survive the short term crisis.  Actually I should use the word “nibble” (not big position). This is because if another over-reaction happens in the mid-term causing the prices to drop, I will nibble again. See my previous blog here on why I added these 3 stocks

Anyway nibble is such a good word to use. If prices fall after my purchase, I can say it is only a very small position. If prices rise later, I can say my nimble is actually quite substantial. Either way, I won! Haha… LOL.


2. ARA
3. Asian Pay TV
4. CapitaRetail China Tr
5. Chip Eng Seng
6. CM Pacific
7. Coca Cola Amatil (ASX)
8. Comfort Delgro
9. Courts
10. Croesus Retail Trust
11. Ezion
12. Fraser Com Tr
13. KrisEnergy
14. Lippo MIRT
15. Maple Log Tr
16. Nam Cheong
17. OUE
18. Oveseas Education
19. Raffles Medical
20. Sembcorp Ind
21. SGX
22. Starhub
23. Super
24. Swissco
25. Vallianz

Disclaimer: This blog and its contents contain the opinions and views of me. It is not a recommendation to purchase or sell the stocks of any of the companies or investments herein discussed. If a reader requires expert financial advice, a competent professional should be consulted. I cannot guarantee the accuracy of the information contained herein the blog and its contents. Other than being the shareholders of some of the stocks discussed herein at the time of writing, I am not in any way related to the company mentioned within the blog. I specifically disclaim any responsibility for any liability, loss, or risk, professional or otherwise, which is incurred as a consequence, directly or indirectly, of the use and application of any contents of this blog.

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Rebalancing My Investment Portfolio

Sunday, 26 October 2014

Oil Price Effects – Ezion, Swissco, Nam Cheong, Vallianz, Keppel & Sembmarine

I was talking to veterans within Singapore, China and Europe in the oil and gas industry for the past week. When asked about sentiments with respect to the falling oil price, most will say it is a concern for the next two years but things should turn positive from 2017 onwards. Another who is more than 30 years in the business said that oil price always go through the up and down cycles, eventually it still goes up, therefore nothing to worry about. Below I present Rolf’s views on the oil price effects and how it will affect different segments / companies.

Why Oil Price Tumbles

Brent Crude Oil price plummeted 28% on 15 Oct to US$80 a barrel since Jun 19. It is the lowest since Nov 2010. Oil and Gas stocks share price were all adversely affected. Why? 3 main reasons as follows.

1) Discover of Shale Gas
Since discovery of Shale Gas, US had been producing own oil. Output was increased by more than 65% since 1986 making the country less dependent on oil producing countries in Africa and Middle East.

2) Increase Supply from Middle-Eastern countries
Saudi Arabia the largest OPEC member led the reduction of oil price by increasing supply. It is apparent that this is a move to teach the US “shale boys” and the both sanctioned countries of Iran and Russia a lesson, for these countries required a higher oil price to make their production sustainable – typically > US$80 a barrel to be economical.

In Libya, the rebels allowed shuttered oil fields and terminals to resume operations increasing production from just over 200k barrels produced in May to 1.5 million barrels of oil a day now.

3) Weak Demand from China, Russia and Europe
Economies in China, Russia and Europe all slowed down compared to previous years, hurting demand for oil. IEA reduced global oil demand forecast by as much as 35% lately.  

What will Happen – Near, Mid, Long Term

Near Term (2015)
The harsh winter of 2014 is nearing and this will give oil demand a boost. Oil price should still be hover around US$80 in the near term since a lot of production for 2015 had already been hedged at US$95 to 100 a barrel.

Mid Term (2016)
Oil price may continue to drop to a stage where shale gas production is no longer feasible forcing a reduction in output. Data estimate that most shale gas producers require US$70 to 90 a barrel for production to be economical. Therefore there is possibility that oil price may even break below US$70.

On the other hand, National Oil Companies (NOC) will take opportunities to stock up oil reserves at a lower price especially China who relied on imports to meet 57.4% of its crude consumption in 2013.

Long Term (2017 onwards)
Long term depressed oil price definitely does not do OPEC any good as they are dependent on the revenue from oil production anyway. Therefore long term fundamentals still sound.

Effects on Different Segments

It is clear that with oil price drop, CAPEX for exploration and production will be reduced.

Jack Up Rigs & Deepwater Drillships – Weak
I mentioned in my post in June this year (refer here) that Jack Up Rigs oversupply will be a concern. Now with oil price potentially falling in the next 2 years, we should be careful with companies who are not true drilling contractors without oil majors contracts. These companies are speculators who ventured into rig-owning business to expand. Be aware that any twist of fate will sink the speculators such as Marco Polo, Falcon Energy, Viking Offshore.

Evidently, Keppel O&M and Sembmarine orders from Jack up will decrease after hitting a peak in 2011. In particular Semb Marine Drillship orders for deepwater should also see a decline as it is more costly for oil production in deepwater. Cut throat competitions from China is another concern.

While it is expected that earnings from O&M will fall in the mid-term (analyst estimated up to 30% decline in EPS), outlook over long term is still positive. Both companies have strong order books of more than ten billions each and strong balance sheet. Its ability to continue receiving new orders (outside rig segments) should also provide added assurance.

FPSO, LNG & Repair – Strong
With falling oil prices, repair and servicing of vessels may become a more viable option for owners. Sembmarine new Tuas yard may benefit from this. FPSO segment should continue to be strong included within Brazil Petrobras CAPEX plan. Similarly for LNG segment.  

Shallow Water - Strong
Shallow water accounts for 80% or more of all offshore oil produced. Oil production in shallow water cost est US$20-50 to produce. In South East Asia it cost as low as US$20 a barrel, while in Middle East it cost est. US$25-30 a barrel to produce. Oil price drop has lesser impact in shallow water compared to deep water segment which need higher oil price to be economical.

Contracts with NOC - Preferred
National Oil Companies (NOC) should continue to expand their capex particularly in shallow water since it is still highly profitable even if oil price is just US$80 a barrel.

Companies with Younger Fleet - Preferred
The age of the vessel is a concern for oil majors as they prefer younger and more efficient vessels. Malaysian Petronas has age limit at 15 years, while France’s Total required a limit of 20 years. Mexico’s Pemex has the most stringent criteria with age limits of between 10 and 12 years depending on the vessel type.

Cabotage Law - Advantage
The cabotage or local content principle in Malaysia and Indonesia requires vessels operating within the country waters to be domestically owned and carrying the country’s flag. Companies with vessel that satisfy the local cabotage laws in Indonesia and Malaysia should also stand out among their peers.

Rolf’s Pick

My picks base on above criteria will be companies as follows

Nam Cheong – largest suppliers of shallow water AHTS in the world. It’s new fuel-efficient vessel in house-design NC80E already start selling like hot cakes. This is a vessel with mass market technology, more modular, and can allow the company deliver fast and at a lower cost. Cabotage law is also advantage for Nam Cheong having its base in Malaysia and recent JV with Marco Polo venturing into chartering business in Indonesia.

But undoubtedly oil price fall will prove risky for its Build-To-Stock model especially on the financing. Remember the worst had occurred in 2009, but the company did put through those difficult periods and become more resilient ever since.

Vallianz – has contracts with NOC in Mexico (PEMEX), Saudi (ARAMCO) and China (COOEC). With Middle East continue to increase oil production, Vallianz JV with Saudi Rawabi is in a good position to tap this opportunity. Moreover Vallianz’s shallow water OSVs are at young age of 2.3 years on average. Its recent multiple placements of shares to acquire shipyard and crewing companies were at S$0.138 a piece more than 50% above its current share price of 91Sc. Overall, the company should be buoyed by strong orderbook of more than US$500 mil.

The key risk will be financing of vessel growth which the company is heavily leveraged on. One way the company reduce risk in the financing is to build vessels cheaply in Chinese yards, with financing risks burden bear by the yard.

Ezion – One of the Largest Liftboat suppliers in the world. Liftboat is most optimal in its operations for Enhance Oil Recovery of aging fields, which is one major problem faced by most South East Asia NOC today. Ezion’s contracts today are mainly with NOC and the company is hoping to start a new era in Liftboat. Malaysian billionaire Tan Sri Quek Leng Chan also snapped up more than S$100mil new shares at S$1.94 a piece signalling confidence in Liftboat business in this region. Its subsidiary Charisma Energy, JK Tech had also won orders this year combined worth more than US$66mil.

Typical risk of a growing company is leverage and Ezion is no different. It has net debt/equity ratio of 87% with no free cash flow due to re-investments in vessels.  We will also start seeing new entrants into the Liftboat business providing competition.

Swissco – Expanding into Liftboat market to emulate Ezion’s extraordinary success over the past few years. Continue to receive OSV chartering orders recently signalling it’s strength in its traditional business. Same leverage risk as Ezion as it grow its liftboat business.

Pacific Radiance – Not part of my portfolio and did not go into detail in the analysis. However its business model greatly satisfies shallow-water NOC contracts, cabotage law, young fleet advantages mentioned earlier. Moreover its chairman Pang Yoke Min had been acquiring close to 3 million shares in the past week.

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Vallianz & Nam Cheong – Nurturing Valiant Growth

Sunday, 19 October 2014

What Are Your Big Ideas for Singapore?

How not to enjoy life, when you can start your Sunday having Dim Sum, followed by shopping and a cup of coffee. I did exactly that with my family today. Thereafter I was somehow lured by the “scent of books”, walking into Kinokuniya Bookstore. Conspicuously located in the sea of books at every corner is non-other than LKY’s “Big Ideas”.

Ostensibly, you need to grab the book and subconsciously pay for it, which I did. Sounds familiar….. no choice…. Haha! Anyway it costs S$29.96 including GST.   

I then asked my 3-year old daughter who is this uncle. She answered “Ah Gong”. We broke into laughter and I told her, IF only she is your Ah Gong…..   

Anyway it’s another traveling week ahead, so I thought why not just bring a companion with me to kill some time onboard the plane and also while waiting at the custom in the airport.

The Big Ideas is a 196-page book comprising of essays from the people who had worked closely with our former Prime Minister. Lawrence Wong, Minister of Culture, Community and Youth said in a conference two days ago on the Three “Big Ideas” for Singapore. 


See more on the news here.

What are you Big Ideas for Singapore? 

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Saturday, 18 October 2014

Who Do You Want to Be - Entrepreneur or Business Investor?

Last week, subsequent to a meet up with an ex-business competitor-turned entrepreneur, I wrote an article about "Who Has a Better Life – Entrepreneur or Salaried Staff?". One topic raised during our chat was the difference between Entrepreneur and Business Investor.  

The topic actually spins off while talking about my two ex-bosses who are successful and respectable figure in our industry. Just before the GFC, the two Bosses sold off the company for an estimated fortune exceeding S$100 million. 

One is an Entrepreneur (Let’s call him Boss A) who runs his company for more than thirty years. The other is a Business Investor (Let’s call him Boss B) who injected his funds at the right place and right time, ballooned the investment ten times within less than five years.  

Having worked for both bosses, I noted some of the differences as follow. Note that the views are purely case specific.

Gratification. Entrepreneur has longer delayed gratification. Business investor usually has a shorter investment horizon target.

Risk. Entrepreneur usually takes more risk (really have balls at times!), while business investor assumes smaller calculated risk.

Devotion. True Entrepreneur has his soul and mind entirely devoted to the business. Entrepreneur topics or dialogues are nothing but business, business and business! Investor talk about profits profits profits!

Rational. True Entrepreneur can be irrational at times. Before the GFC, the company I used to work for was at its peak (never before since founded). A very attractive buyout offer came but Boss A was not moved. This is despite his not so perfect health, not so young anymore and children are too young to take over the company. Moreover everyone know our industry is cyclic. Boss B was rational and insisted the sale instead of an IPO. Subsequently GFC came, and the industry crashed but they had already cash out. 

Management style. It is more difficult for the employee to know what exactly the Entrepreneur want. But very often it also brings the best out of the employee who will be so inspired. Frequent times, Entrepreneur has more emotions attached to staff who worked for him for a long time. The Business investor has a more corporate but reasonable management style - reward (or remove) according to performance.

Time. Entrepreneur worked non-stop, even crazier during the initial phase. Business investor normally has more time for hobbies and family. They have things they like to do, and spend more time to cultivate their kids.

About Boss A

Boss A pocketed a much larger share, but the sacrifices he made was over 30 years. I had seen how hard-working he was. Boss A is very emotionally linked to the company with mood swings according to the company's performance. But he is very kind-hearted and employees felt it. The stress of sustaining the business of close to 500 employees is enormous. Was told he was on verge of bankruptcy at least three times before the sale of the company. Debts are inclusive of personal mortgages. Boss A seldom have time for his family then. Success also attributes to a dedicated homemaker wife who managed the family well.

About Boss B

Boss B used to be a high position corporate salaried staff as well as passive investors of businesses, stocks and properties. After his corporate career, he invested and worked in the company Boss A founded. Boss B's few millions invested ten-folded within two years after the company was sold. A move that he initiated just before the GFC. Boss B was less emotional and more pragmatic in decision making and frankly a much better manager for the employees. But he is second in terms of charisma, the guts to take risks and lack the dreamer vision that Boss A had. He is also very kind-hearted but many at times people misunderstood his true good intention as only money driven. 

Rolf's View

Both bosses are mentors in my life who I am truly grateful of. They will always command utmost respect from me. 

This is just one story of an Entrepreneur Vs Business investor! There are many different versions around. 

Nevertheless it serves as a good reminder to me of the life experiences that both Bosses went through. 

Which Bosses do you want to be?

Thursday, 16 October 2014

Otto Marine - Is Price Cheap Enough Now?

Otto Marine Brief

Otto Marine Limited (SGX: G4F) “Otto” is an offshore marine company that engaged in shipbuilding, ship repair, conversion and fabrication, ship chartering, and specialized services. The company owns/operates a fleet of 60 offshore vessels as well as one of the largest shipyards in Batam, Indonesia.

What happened recently?

Otto Marine trades at 52 weeks low of 5.3Sc today. This price is almost 50% off its high of 9.8Sc this year. Current price is also close to 40% discount its book value.  

Otto’s Market cap is S$230mil. The company sees red in its bottomline in FY11 and FY12, but managed to reverse losses into profit last year, recording a net profit of US$15.9 mil (~S$20mil). Based on current price, it translates to a PE of 11.5. First half net profit this year was US$2.6 mil.

Is this a good time to accumulate?

Like what Peter Lynch said, 

“You have to know what you own and why you own it”! 

Therefore let’s get to know more about this company as follows. 

Before GFC

From 2005 to 2008, oil price was rising and Offshore and Marine / ship building market enjoyed one of their best years. Demand for new ships outpaced supply and buyers need to queue and wait. Premium pricing for urgent short delivery vessel buy is widespread. Due to this reason, Otto started speculating vessels which means build before receiving charter or buyer contract. It can be referred to Build to Stock (BTS) Model where Jaya Holdings and Nam Cheong were not new to it either. Otto BTS vessels can be as many as 20-30 vessels a year then, with vessels either built in their own Batam yard or subcontract to Chinese yards.

During and After GFC

During the crunch, Otto’s BTS vessels under construction were suddenly not having potential buyers. Even vessels with buyers were in the face of cancellation or postponement. One reason is due to Buyers were speculators themselves with no contract with Oil Companies. Things could not get more worst with banks and suppliers start seeking for repayments in a period surrounded by fear. Unlike Nam Cheong, Otto BTS model has more diversified vessels subcontracting in different yards in China. Having said that, the company's main burden for the past few years may not necessarily be derived from the BTS model. Instead it is one of the Build To Order (BTO) contracts involving four VS491CD ultra large AHTS contracted before the crisis at an approx. value of US$320mil. 

Four Ultra-Large AHTS Woes

In 2007, Norwegian company Mosvold Supply contracted Otto for 4 Ultra-Large AHTS Vessels to be built in Otto’s Batam yard. Each vessel was valued US77mil and more. The period of global financial agony, saw Mosvold claiming that Otto delayed the vessel deliveries. This led to Mosvold cancelled all vessels from May 2010 to Feb 2012. Subsequently Mosvold received the full refund of installments paid including interest, by calling on the refund guarantees. According to the contract, Mosvold is entitled to do that.

Negative Impact
The cancellations together with impairment of goodwill for distressed subsidiary Reflect Geophysical contributed to the Net Loss of US$56.1mil and US$113.7mil in 2011 and 2012 respectively. As of Sep last year, Otto announced that they had reached an amicable settlement with Mosvold with both agreed to settle without admission of liability and on a confidential basis.

3 Working, 1 Left!

Otto’s 4x VS491CD are H7047/48/49/50. From its website, you can identify that 7048 and 7049 are on charter. H7047 is completed End of 2013, while H7050 will be available within this year (website typo error states 1Q2013).

The first VS491CD vessel also reported to have completed the rig move of one of the largest rigs in the region for an oil major last year. The second vessel secures a charter contract early this year to work in North sea for a deal of US$40mil for an undisclosed period under term contract. 

Both vessels on charter were actually on Sale and Lease Back agreements announced in July 2013. Each vessel was valued at US$85 mil for a total of US$170 mil. The new owner is undisclosed renowned 3rd party in Batam (stated in their website announcement) while Charterer will be Otto Marine for a period of 8 years.

On Nov 2013, Otto entered into a MOA (no legal binding) to sell the third vessel to PT GO Marine, which is owned 49% by Otto. Value of the deal is US$95 mil.

Early this year, Otto also announced that the third vessel has secured term contract in North Sea for an undisclosed period. The deal is valued ~US$40mil including options.

For now, it seems that 3/4 of the woes had been resolved! 

Below picture show VS491CD Ultra Large AHTS vessls from Norwegian ship owner Siem Offshore - Otto Marine competitor. Siem offshore is one of the largest owners of VS491CD AHTS. 

You can also find more information about VS491CD AHTS vessel here. One of the critical equipment for its operation is the Anchor Handling Towing Winch located at the mid main deck of the vessel.

2013 Financial Results

Otto reversed losses of US$113.7mil in 2012 to record a net profit of US$15.9mil in 2013. For more about Otto’s 2013 financial performance, please refer to article from Motley Fool here.

2014 1H Financial Results

Rolf’s View

In general I am neutral on Otto Marine. Below is my Pros and Cons take.

  • Price at 52 weeks low with book discount of 40%.
  • Turnaround profit in 2013 reversing losses in two years before. 
  • Transformation of business from shipyard to chartering, contributing 66% of 1H14 revenue.
  • Positive operating cashflow since FY2012. Generate US$115mil op cashflow in FY13.
  • Order backlog of >US$400mil + AUD57mil announced lately.
  • Opportunity in the subsea segment having appointed UOB Kay Hian to evaluate strategic options to grow its Subsea Service Division.
  • Growing net debt position from US$447 (end-13) to 523mil (1H-14).
  • Just issued S$70mil 7% fixed notes due in 2016.
  • Sale and Lease back deal of the Ultra-large AHTS not very transparent.
  • Non-transparency in its charter contract period for the Ultra Large AHTS. This is important because at any one time if these vessels are off hire, idle fees may pile up.
  • Otto’s Ultra Large AHTS are new in the market. Lack proven operational track records to back its bid for more new contracts against its competition.
  • Weak oil price outlook.
It pays to also analyze Otto’s peers such as ASL, Marco Polo, Nam Cheong, Swissco, Vallianz, Pacific Radiance, POSH, EMAS to have a more balance analysis too. 

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