Friday, 12 February 2016

My Portfolio – Recent Actions

Since the start of the year, STI has plunged below 2600, nothing seen since the financial crisis of 2009.

Worry (hold or sell) or buy?

I view the current selldown as a buying opportunity, considering that I have been relatively dormant in the last 4-5 months waiting for this moment to come. Since the beginning of the year, I made more than ten of trades deploying a fair share of my cash warchest! Below are the stocks I scooped in 2016.

STI ETF (ES3)
Global Logistic (MC0)
M1 (B2F)
Singpost (S08)
DBS (D05)
Coca Cola Amatil (CCL)
Raffles Medical (R01)
OCBC (O39)
Valuetronics (BN2)
SGX (S68)
CMPacific (S7OU)

Why these stocks? 

It is really personal preference. It also take into account how I want  my own portfolio to diversify across various sectors and how I have more concentration on certain stocks that I am comfortable with. I also categorise stocks into my "own definition" of 1) speculative, 2) growth and 3) income stocks base on different percentages. Ok, I learn this from Motley Fool. Hopefully I have time to write more about it in more detail on a separate post. 

Prudent and still keep lots of cash

While I am buying sparingly, I am prudent and still keep >50% of cash to take advantage of further plunge, if it does happen. Whether it will go up or down later, it matters little to me. The reason is I already devised a plan and action of what to do, be it market goes up or down later. Since beginning of 2016, I had deployed 15-20% of my warchest for equities. The warchest was inflated due to bonus received too. 

Stock performance

Based solely on 2016 purchase, the return of my portfolio is -5.0% excl. dividends. STI index started the year at 2,836 falling to 2,582 now. This represents -9.0% return. Overall my entire stock portfolio is already down 20-25%. This decline excludes dividends and realized profits in the past years though.

Your good decision in the past, makes you feel good today

So far, I think I am on the right track, because this execution of warchest was planned for since last year. Strangely, instead of feeling sad and lose sleep over my sea of red portfolio, I am feeling extremely good now. Maybe because I still feel the sweetness when I cash out my profitable trades last August when at least pricing is still good. I also made several painful decisions to cut losses back then, which became a blessing in disguise today. 

Listen to your heart

Many people were sceptical about my actions back then and tell me how I should concentrate on fundamentals of individual stock and that I cannot time to the market..bla bla bla. I am grateful for the advices because they are out of goodwill. Nevertheless I trusted on my own instinct more, for I am certain I know myself better than anyone else in this planet.

Expect the unexpected earlier

Today, the huge warchest is probably providing a comfortable cushion for me to sleep well. Now I am in a good position to re-construct my portfolio with my pillow of cash. Perhaps it is also the mindset of anticipation in advance. This is such that when the so-call "unexpected" events happen, it will be "less unexpected!" for me to say the least. 

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21 comments:

  1. hi rolf, i would like to get your thoughts on why you are confident cmp wont have an issue. thanks in advance

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    Replies
    1. Hi Kyith,

      Honor to hav u here, bcos ur detail analysis is one of the best here in the blogosphere incl that of CMP. So if u r worry abt CMP, it does ring some alarm bells. I buy CMP in 2014 for reasons below and later sold 20-30 lots to lock in profits after the bonus share.

      Unlike last time, now due to time constraint, I no longer go into detail analysis but yet focus on co I use to perform detail analysis before. Better to buy those u r familiar with.

      But on a macro level, I am long term positive on China. CMP ability to generate cashflow n strong SOE support to refinance at low rates give long term assurance. Can be even that gg fwd further refinance can be even at lower rates, if china govt continue to ease.

      Biggest worry is China Currency devaluation wrt to HKD and earnings! This ll impact earnings. Moreover toll road is not freehold.

      I DO think China ll go thru rough times in the next 2-3yrs or so, but future is bright. Where is bottom I do not know. So I buy now.

      So isn't it great that I profit by selling a stock in greater qty last time, n now I can buy back cheaper n slowly in the next 2-3 yrs. I only buy 3 lots this round.

      Delete
    2. Less analysing. More investing. We made money from the stock market from rounds after rounds.

      Delete
    3. you also lose money rounds after round if you do not analyze enough.

      somehow you dont seem to be scared about the currency issues between the usd and rmb causing a change in the thesis and the focus seem to be you locked in profits and being more a trader like cw888

      Delete
    4. Hi Kyith, I believe CW use to analyse a lot when he was younger. But as experience gather there ll up to a point u realise what is the best way for u to beat the market. And u just use that way that is most suitable for u. But who m I to say? But at least this is wat I felt also. Too much analyzing is not suitable for me. Now I tend to focus on stocks I use to buy / sell before n emotional control n mental strength to me is an more impt element that stock picker lack.

      Devaluation is a transition n temporary process, isn't it good to buy thru out this transition process where price is cheap. But if I am holding 30lots an above now? I m not so sure this strategy apply. There might be a pt that u sell everything n later buy back sparingly spreading over time!

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    5. the devaluation is a problem if it is a secular issue since they borrow in usd and earns in rmb or hkd. had they not have the cheap financing, what used to be loss making might just look like medicore break even investments.

      a large part of their results is attributed to this.

      having said that what, we are talking about here is not deep analysis. it is just identifying risk that makes rather large impact and i am sure this could be impactful enough to ask both you and silly investor on this.

      u are an oil and gas expert and ur view on oil and gas is rather different considering you have build up the competency and have an easier time making sense of what was put out by the company and make decision accordingly.

      some other folks do not have that luxury and had you not done the analysis you would have bought sci and keppel corp at what is a valued price, which would at hindsight now look substantially higher.

      the point is, analysis does matter. if it doesnt matter then why does buffett and munger and other investors spend time expanding their competency and reading.

      take this as useful information or blabbering. i think i care enough for you guys money to say you need to think of risk enough.

      instead of saying think less invest more.

      Delete
    6. Hi Kyith,

      I know where u r coming from and understand. Appreciate the advice and care. Will be more careful on CMP! The devaluation is really a problem now, so it's important to not over commit.

      could there be a point where USD or yen r no longer the safe haven? The fact that they r just using QE to sustain?

      Differing views allow us to think and move forward. That is a good thing.

      Ok, happy CNY to everyone! :-)

      Delete
    7. This comment has been removed by the author.

      Delete
    8. Hi blanc,

      Yes I know. I am refering to the past and also who can confidently say that US will not resort to another QE in the near future?

      Delete

  2. Buy slowly and stretch war chest farther. That is one way of market timing. :-)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi uncle, happy CNy! thanks for the advice and I will follow.

      The surprised bigger bonuses provided some impetus for the larger buy in the last 1 mth or so. Remember I m in oil n gas. Bonus? What?

      Delete
    2. Rolf,

      RMB short term will weaken; but in the long term - if we use the Japanese Yen as a guide from the 70s to 80s - the RMB will strengthen and one day rival the USD, EURO, and YEN.

      It all a matter of time frame ;)


      Less analyzing; more investing. Let our track records do the talking. Shhh...

      Delete
    3. Hi Jared,

      Good that another Qian Bei is here to pen down his thought.

      U and I are always bullish about China in the long term. For me, undoubtedly much more bullish than oil price! haha...

      The short term problems Chinese are facing now r inevitable and it is part of the transition. This is what all nations prior to becoming number 1 power in the world has to go thru. US went thru that before also, likewise Japan!

      Good for u to mention about the YEN . USD is considered safe haven today bcos the world simply has no other alternative! But the rate US, JAPAN & EU had been rolling their press machines in the last 7 yrs, we need to think twice!

      I agree it's a matter of timeframe! I think the temporary crippling China in this few years will open up many windows of opportunity for investors who have the right temperament.

      We shall see and let the time do the judgement!

      Delete
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      Delete
  3. been following ur blogs. this time seem u didnt include any oil and gas firm? i thinking of averaging abit

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Anoymous,

      Tks for following n happy CNY to u. While O&G is cheap, personally I felt the risk is too high compare to many other cheap stocks. And bear in mind that O&G is an industry where depends a lot on backlog order (deliver of a rig is ~32-36mths n vessel is 18-24 mths), where deteriorating effect will be slower but longer! So personally I think even when the economy or oil price rebound, their earnings ll take awhile. Unless u talking abt oil producers or refiners. Diff story.

      I do not think I ll add O&G or bank stocks for now for long term, unless for trading purposes. If my trading call wrong, I may sell at a lost.

      I reckon for consumption, transport, telco, healthcare, or even china, the long term risk is minimal as long as u dun buy at their highest. Now is definitely nearer to cheap than expensive.

      Just my two cents thought!

      Delete
    2. by the way, I did buy into O&G firms via my STI ETF! :-)

      Delete
  4. Hi Rolf

    Looks like you sort out your portfolio allocation well and placed that more importantly than the analysing itself (I saw the comment from your interaction with Kyith up above), so I guess you are sticking with what you already know.

    Does that mean you only have a few of those watchlist you have analysed before previously?

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi B,

      Wow wow wow! From the deep down my heart, u got it all correct. Remarkable!

      U prolly know I sold most of position last yr and at one stage with 75% cash. With the cash pile, I can better focus on portfolio construction.

      And u are absolutely right that now my Watchlist is those that I have analysed before or those I had buy/sell before. I had owned up to 30 stocks at one last yr, n now I try not to spend time on new stocks analysis, unless it is really catchy.

      U too?

      Now that's y u r born on the same day of WB. Wizard of Lion City! Thumbs up! :-)

      Delete
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    ReplyDelete