I have been reading Ray Dalio’s Economic Principles that can be downloaded from the internet. I came across this interesting topic
on the different stages of countries evolvement. So I thought it is good to share. According to Dalio, there are 5 stages of economic
conditions throughout the lifecycle of a typical empire.
1) countries are poor and think that they are poor
Countries are poor with very low
income. They have no savings and no debts to speak of. These countries are
basically low cost producers that produce low value added goods. This will
attract big foreign investments to tap on its highly cost effective production,
even in the face of a risky political situation. The currency and capital
market is undeveloped. Country will peg exchange rate to gold or some other
currency (e.g. USD). It is also the time where they build up their foreign reserves.
They are also known as early stage of emerging countries.
2) countries are rich but still think they are poor
The same people in these countries
that went through the first stage, started to become rich. They still remember
how they were grown up poor and are very financially cautious. The people
continue to work hard, driving the export. They continue to save a lot and
normally invest in houses, almost risk-free bonds of the country, gold etc.
Productivity rise, so is income. Inflation is not a problem and debt is well contained.
This is a healthy period.
However eventually debt rise faster
than income and income rise faster than productivity, the country starts to
experience inflation. With currency pegged to the reserve currency countries, the fate of the country's economy is also dependent on the reserve countries. If the reserve countries have slower growth, which is usually the case, they will require decreasing interest rates to spur the economy. The emerging countries will then also have an interest rate environment that will be too low relative to nominal growth. This in turn will lead to credit growth and upward
inflationary bubbles.
There will also be balance of
payment surplus. To curb inflation, government will then abandon peg
and appreciate currency to balance their trade. Domestic capital market becomes widely accepted with domestic
investors participating in this boom as well. If a big country that is going
through this “late stage of emerging-countries”, they will develop into
a great world power.
3) countries are rich and think of themselves as rich
In this stage, per capita income
rise to near world’s highest because of the countries’ prior investments in infrastructure,
capital goods and R&D are all paying off. Being rich, there are more spending on "wants" than "needs". A psychological change takes place. People are becoming
richer and they wanted to savor their fruits. They no longer work as hard and
call for more work life balances and the younger yearn for early retirement.
They become great importer and have
high foreign investments in developing countries. Their capital market achieve ‘blue-chip”
status and has high returns. Focus is on the development of their capital
markets rather than actual productivity of the countries.
Countries that are large and in this
stage almost always become world economic and military powers. They are aka early
stage developed countries.
4) countries become poorer and still think of themselves as rich
At this stage, debts rise much
higher than income – leveraging up! The older generation who went through the earlier
emerging stages is either retired or no longer around. The new generation while earn a lot, also spend
a lot. Their income grow, so are debt at a higher pace, while savings fall. As credit loosens, the spending of the entire
economy is so strong that they appear rich, even when their balance sheets
deteriorate.
The low levels of investments in infrastructure, capital goods and
R&D also mean productivity gains lessen. The balance of payment deteriorates
and the country lost its competitiveness. Rather than cutting deficits, they
continue to think that they are rich because of their reputation. Countries also typically spend a lot on military at this stage and sometimes go to war to
protect their global interests. This will result in government deficits. So the
country will experience twin deficits in 1) BOP and 2) government deficits.
As debts rise to purchase goods,
services and investment assets, Bubbles take place. People led by policy maker
still think like before and think more good times ahead. They continue to bet
heavily on trends rising, and thought their investments are great and borrow
more money to drive them up higher. Asset value rise, people appear even richer
and spending, nominal income continue rising. Borrowing capacity increase and the leverage up spiral goes up until the bubble eventually burst.
The economy decline and this is
known as the late stage of developed countries.
When the bubbles burst, private debts skyrocketed. Private sector spending fall so is asset value and net worth.
Corporations and people becomes less creditworthiness. This will resulted in
less borrowing, and hence even lower spending. The negative cycle
self-reinforces and spiral down rapidly. Demand for their currency weakens and
hence depreciates.
To salvage the situation, central
bank print money and rate of interest decline in an attempt to spur nominal
(not real) GDP growth. Government debts rise dramatically. The nominal rate of
GDP growth needs to be higher than nominal rate of interest, in order to ease
debt burden. (side track: this is why Fed cannot raise rate, since the nominal growth is so
low!)
Given the low interest rate environment,
weak currencies, huge debts and poor
performing equity assets, these countries faces a serious decline. In order to
compete with the less expensive countries, their currencies have to depreciate
and they like it! So this stage signals the decline of a world power.
Maybe this provides a rough idea of where each economies are heading next!
Do you agree?
Seems like Europe is in Stage 5 already. Little innovative products to drive their economy. Even their banking sector is in shambles.
ReplyDeleteU.S. seems to be in Stage 4, but there are still innovative tech companies driving productivity and growth, unlike Europe.
For Singapore, it seems to be between stages 3-4. And sadly, there's little innovation to drive productivity here.
Well said!
DeleteGents, some good guess going on there!
DeleteHi Rolf,
ReplyDeleteI am pretty bearish on Europe but still bullish on America. Besides the economy, I would also want to consider potential military power.
Hi 15HWW,
DeleteI am not too sure about bullishness for both USA and Europe as countries, though there are some extremely solid/strong companies that originated from these countries that will continue to do well for many years to come.
Potential military power growing is the last thing we want, because the sheer "potentials" without the actual war, can already create hell lots of tensions! Especially if ever a Depression takes place. That is where we see people like Adolf Hitler surfacing.
Hi Rolf
ReplyDeleteI hope we can work toward no. 2.5 forever, ever and ever. :)
Hi FD,
ReplyDeleteSame here, I wish we are 2.5 forever. But, hope is usually different from reality!
:-)
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Approval in 15-30 minutes Open 7 days a week from 24/7 Service available
nationwide Whatsapp:+919205335862 E-MAIL
globalsulutionfinance89@gmail.com Tell : +919205335862
We are Ireland based major/Direct providers of Fresh Cut BG, SBLC, POF, MTN, Bonds and CDs and this financial instruments are specifically for lease and sale.We are one of the leading Financial instrument providers with offices all over Europe.
ReplyDeletewe always deliver on time and precision as Set forth in the agreement. You are at liberty to engage our leased facilities into trade programs, project financing, Credit line enhancement, Corporate Loans (Business Start-up Loans or Business Expansion Loans), Equipment Procurement Loans (Industrial Equipment, Air crafts, Ships, etc.) as well as other financial instruments issued from AAA Rated bank such as HSBC Bank Hong Kong, HSBC Bank London, Deutsche Bank AG Frankfurt, Barclays Bank , Standard Chartered Bank and others on lease at the lowest available rates depending on the face value of the instrument needed, Our Terms and Conditions are reasonable.
DESCRIPTION OF INSTRUMENTS:
1. Instrument: Bank Guarantee (BG)/SBLC (Appendix A)
2. Total Face Value: 10M MIN to 50B MAX USD or Euro
3. Issuing Bank: HSBC, Deutsche Bank Frankfurt, UBS or any Top 25 .
4. Age: One Year, One Day
5. Leasing Price: 4+ 1%
6. Sale Price: 32+2%
7. Delivery by SWIFT .
8. Payment: MT103-23
9. Hard Copy: Bonded Courier within 7 banking days.
If you have need for Corporate loans, International project funding, etc. or if you have a client that requires funding for his project or business, We are also affiliated with lenders who specialize on funding against financial instruments, such as BG, SBLC, POF or MTN, we fund 100% of the face value of the financial instrument.
Inquiries from agents/ brokers/ intermediaries are also welcomed; do get back to us if you are interested in any of our services and for quality service.
Name : Keat Cheng
E-mail : keatcheng2@gmail.com
Skype id :keatcheng2@gmail.com