Wednesday, 4 November 2015

The 5 stages of an empire - Ray Dalio

I have been reading Ray Dalio’s Economic Principles that can be downloaded from the internet. I came across this interesting topic on the different stages of countries evolvement. So I thought it is good to share. According to Dalio, there are 5 stages of economic conditions throughout the lifecycle of a typical empire. 

1) countries are poor and think that they are poor

Countries are poor with very low income. They have no savings and no debts to speak of. These countries are basically low cost producers that produce low value added goods. This will attract big foreign investments to tap on its highly cost effective production, even in the face of a risky political situation. The currency and capital market is undeveloped. Country will peg exchange rate to gold or some other currency (e.g. USD). It is also the time where they build up their foreign reserves. They are also known as early stage of emerging countries.

2) countries are rich but still think they are poor

The same people in these countries that went through the first stage, started to become rich. They still remember how they were grown up poor and are very financially cautious. The people continue to work hard, driving the export. They continue to save a lot and normally invest in houses, almost risk-free bonds of the country, gold etc. Productivity rise, so is income. Inflation is not a problem and debt is well contained. This is a healthy period.

However eventually debt rise faster than income and income rise faster than productivity, the country starts to experience inflation. With currency pegged to the reserve currency countries, the fate of the country's economy is also dependent on the reserve countries. If the reserve countries have slower growth, which is usually the case, they will require decreasing interest rates to spur the economy. The emerging countries will then also have an interest rate environment that will be too low relative to nominal growth. This in turn will lead to credit growth and upward inflationary bubbles. 

There will also be balance of payment surplus. To curb inflation, government will then abandon peg and appreciate currency to balance their trade. Domestic capital market becomes widely accepted with domestic investors participating in this boom as well. If a big country that is going through this “late stage of emerging-countries”, they will develop into a great world power.

3) countries are rich and think of themselves as rich

In this stage, per capita income rise to near world’s highest because of the countries’ prior investments in infrastructure, capital goods and R&D are all paying off. Being rich, there are more spending on "wants" than "needs". A psychological change takes place. People are becoming richer and they wanted to savor their fruits. They no longer work as hard and call for more work life balances and the younger yearn for early retirement. 

They become great importer and have high foreign investments in developing countries. Their capital market achieve ‘blue-chip” status and has high returns. Focus is on the development of their capital markets rather than actual productivity of the countries.

Countries that are large and in this stage almost always become world economic and military powers. They are aka early stage developed countries.

4) countries become poorer and still think of themselves as rich

At this stage, debts rise much higher than income – leveraging up! The older generation who went through the earlier emerging stages is either retired or no longer around.  The new generation while earn a lot, also spend a lot. Their income grow, so are debt at a higher pace, while savings fall.  As credit loosens, the spending of the entire economy is so strong that they appear rich, even when their balance sheets deteriorate. 

The low levels of investments in infrastructure, capital goods and R&D also mean productivity gains lessen. The balance of payment deteriorates and the country lost its competitiveness. Rather than cutting deficits, they continue to think that they are rich because of their reputation. Countries also typically spend a lot on military at this stage and sometimes go to war to protect their global interests. This will result in government deficits. So the country will experience twin deficits in 1) BOP and 2) government deficits.

As debts rise to purchase goods, services and investment assets, Bubbles take place. People led by policy maker still think like before and think more good times ahead. They continue to bet heavily on trends rising, and thought their investments are great and borrow more money to drive them up higher. Asset value rise, people appear even richer and spending, nominal income continue rising. Borrowing capacity increase and the leverage up spiral goes up until the bubble eventually burst. 

The economy decline and this is known as the late stage of developed countries.


5) deleveraging and relative decline, which they are slow to accept

When the bubbles burst, private debts skyrocketed. Private sector spending fall so is asset value and net worth. Corporations and people becomes less creditworthiness. This will resulted in less borrowing, and hence even lower spending. The negative cycle self-reinforces and spiral down rapidly. Demand for their currency weakens and hence depreciates.

To salvage the situation, central bank print money and rate of interest decline in an attempt to spur nominal (not real) GDP growth. Government debts rise dramatically. The nominal rate of GDP growth needs to be higher than nominal rate of interest, in order to ease debt burden. (side track: this is why Fed cannot raise rate, since the nominal growth is so low!)

Given the low interest rate environment, weak currencies, huge debts and poor performing equity assets, these countries faces a serious decline. In order to compete with the less expensive countries, their currencies have to depreciate and they like it! So this stage signals the decline of a world power.

Rolf's Thoughts

Maybe this provides a rough idea of where each economies are heading next!

Do you agree?



40 comments:

  1. Seems like Europe is in Stage 5 already. Little innovative products to drive their economy. Even their banking sector is in shambles.
    U.S. seems to be in Stage 4, but there are still innovative tech companies driving productivity and growth, unlike Europe.
    For Singapore, it seems to be between stages 3-4. And sadly, there's little innovation to drive productivity here.

    ReplyDelete
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    1. Gents, some good guess going on there!

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  2. Hi Rolf,

    I am pretty bearish on Europe but still bullish on America. Besides the economy, I would also want to consider potential military power.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi 15HWW,

      I am not too sure about bullishness for both USA and Europe as countries, though there are some extremely solid/strong companies that originated from these countries that will continue to do well for many years to come.

      Potential military power growing is the last thing we want, because the sheer "potentials" without the actual war, can already create hell lots of tensions! Especially if ever a Depression takes place. That is where we see people like Adolf Hitler surfacing.

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  3. Hi Rolf

    I hope we can work toward no. 2.5 forever, ever and ever. :)

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  4. Hi FD,

    Same here, I wish we are 2.5 forever. But, hope is usually different from reality!

    :-)

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  31. Our Operator assistants are friendly and knowledgeable in the field of money lending and will be able to advise you how to go about getting your funds. We will analyze your needs and because each of our clients needs are different and diverse, there are absolutely no obligations! Any of the details that you gave me will be kept strictly confidential and any of the number you provide, we won't be disclosing thing about your call with us. We make sure our customer feel safe and comfortable when have a closed deal with us. Email: (trivagofinancialhome.in@gmail.com) call/WhatsApp us +1(315)615-2883 for more info

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  32. We are Providers of all types of BG and SBLC with the best workable procedures. Our BG/SBLC ranges from MT799, MT760,(Both two way confirmation), MT103/23, MT103 (Both can be one way confirmation and two way confirmation) in USD and EUROS. Issuing Bank ranges from Top world 25 banks with face value ranging from 1M EUROS/USD to 5B EUROS/USD

    BROKERS ARE WELCOME & 100% PROTECTED!!!
    Intermediaries/Consultants/Brokers are welcome to bring their clients and cases to our attention and in complete confidence we will work together for the benefits of all parties involve

    For further details contact us with the below information Thank you.

    Contact Person: Mr. Tommy Champion
    Email: trustco.financeplc@gmail.com
    Skype ID: trustco.financeplc

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  33. We are direct providers of Fresh Cut BG, SBLC and MTN which are specifically for lease, our bank instrument can be engage in PPP Trading, Discounting, signature project (s) such as Aviation, Agriculture, Petroleum, Telecommunication, construction of Dams, Bridges, Real Estate and all kind of projects. We do not have any broker chain in our offer or get involved in chauffer driven offers.

    We deliver with time and precision as sethforth in the agreement. Our terms and Conditions are reasonable. below is our instrument description.

    The procedure is very simple; the instrument will be reserved on Euro clear to be verified by your bank, after verification an arrangement will be made for necessary bank documents and stock testing expenses, the cost of the Bank Guarantee will be paid after the delivery of MT760.

    DESCRIPTION OF INSTRUMENTS:

    1. Instrument: Bank Guarantee (BG/SBLC) (Appendix A)
    2. Total Face Value: Eur 5M MIN and Eur 10B MAX (Ten Billion USD).
    3. Issuing Bank: HSBC Bank London, Barclays, Credit Suisse and Deutsche Bank Frankfurt.
    4. Age: One Year, One Month
    5. Purchasing Price: 32% of Face Value plus 2% commission fees to brokers.
    6. Leasing Price: 4% of Face Value plus 2% commission fees to brokers.
    7. Delivery: Bank to Bank swift.
    8. Payment: MT-103 or MT760
    9. Hard Copy: Bonded Courier within 7 banking days.

    We are ready to close leasing with any interested client in few banking days, if interested do not hesitate to contact me direct.

    Email: mrjohnpaulnowacki@gmail.com

    Skype: MrJohnPaulNowacki

    Regards,

    Mr John Paul Nowacki

    ReplyDelete



  34. DO YOU NEED FINANCIAL HELP? $5000 to $20,000,000.00 No credit check

    Repaid over 1 year to maximum of 30 years at a low interest rate of 3%.

    Approval in 15-30 minutes Open 7 days a week from 24/7 Service available

    nationwide Whatsapp:+919205335862 E-MAIL

    globalsulutionfinance89@gmail.com Tell : +919205335862

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  35. We are Ireland based major/Direct providers of Fresh Cut BG, SBLC, POF, MTN, Bonds and CDs and this financial instruments are specifically for lease and sale.We are one of the leading Financial instrument providers with offices all over Europe.
    we always deliver on time and precision as Set forth in the agreement. You are at liberty to engage our leased facilities into trade programs, project financing, Credit line enhancement, Corporate Loans (Business Start-up Loans or Business Expansion Loans), Equipment Procurement Loans (Industrial Equipment, Air crafts, Ships, etc.) as well as other financial instruments issued from AAA Rated bank such as HSBC Bank Hong Kong, HSBC Bank London, Deutsche Bank AG Frankfurt, Barclays Bank , Standard Chartered Bank and others on lease at the lowest available rates depending on the face value of the instrument needed, Our Terms and Conditions are reasonable.
    DESCRIPTION OF INSTRUMENTS:
    1. Instrument: Bank Guarantee (BG)/SBLC (Appendix A)
    2. Total Face Value: 10M MIN to 50B MAX USD or Euro
    3. Issuing Bank: HSBC, Deutsche Bank Frankfurt, UBS or any Top 25 .
    4. Age: One Year, One Day
    5. Leasing Price: 4+ 1%
    6. Sale Price: 32+2%
    7. Delivery by SWIFT .
    8. Payment: MT103-23
    9. Hard Copy: Bonded Courier within 7 banking days.
    If you have need for Corporate loans, International project funding, etc. or if you have a client that requires funding for his project or business, We are also affiliated with lenders who specialize on funding against financial instruments, such as BG, SBLC, POF or MTN, we fund 100% of the face value of the financial instrument.
    Inquiries from agents/ brokers/ intermediaries are also welcomed; do get back to us if you are interested in any of our services and for quality service.
    Name : Keat Cheng
    E-mail : keatcheng2@gmail.com
    Skype id :keatcheng2@gmail.com

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  36. We Facilitate Bank instruments SBLC for Lease and Purchase. Whether you are a new startup, medium or large establishment that needs a financial solution to fund/get your project off the ground or business looking for extra capital to expand your operation,our company renders credible and trusted bank guarantee provider who are willing to fund and give financing solutions that suits your specific business needs.

    We help you secure and issue sblc and bank guarantee for your trade, projects and investment from top AA rated world Banks like HSBC, Barclays, Dutch Ing Bank, Llyods e.t.c because that’s the best and safest strategy for our clients.e.t.c

    DESCRIPTION OF INSTRUMENTS

    1. Instrument: Funds backed Bank Guarantee(BG) ICC-600

    2. Currency : USD/EURO

    3. Age of Issue: Fresh Cut

    4. Term: One year and One day

    5. Contract Amount: United State Dollars/Euros (Buyers Face Value)

    6. Price : Buy:32%+1, Lease: 4%+2

    7. Subsequent tranches: To be mutually agreed between both parties

    8. Issuing Bank: Top RATED world banks like HSBC, Barclays, ING Dutch Bank, Llyods e.t.c

    9. Delivery Term: Pre advise MT199 or MT799 first. Followed By SWIFT MT760

    10. Payment Term: MT799 & Settlement via MT103

    11. Hard Copy: By Bank Bonded Courier


    Interested Agents,Brokers, Investors and Individual proposing international project funding should contact us for directives.We will be glad to share our working procedures with you upon request.



    Name: Muhammed Emir Harun

    Contact Mail :info.financewizardltd@gmail.com

    Skype: info.financewizardltd@gmail.com

    ReplyDelete