Saturday, 22 August 2015

My Portfolio – Updates of Buy and Sell & Rolf's Advices!

Time to write about stocks to garner more views! Haha haha...! Readers are most interested to read about stocks tips, actions, companies, rather than my long windedness about life in general. Sorry guys, if I offended you. My sincere apologies. :-)

The last time I updated my buy and sell is in May. Refer hereThe world has gone into depressing mode since then. Greece crisis, further oil decline, impending rate hike, Malaysia corruption scandal, China stock plunge, currency devaluation, Tianjin and Thailand bomb scares…

The result : “Sea of red in the stock market!” My portfolio affected? Of course...hahaha... So now it is time to take a break and go for a run, a swim, a cinema, kids, while still looking at chart at a rational mind. So easy? Really? Stop lying!!! 

Anyway, below is the buy and sell actions. 


"SELL"

Silverlake Axis –  Buy at average cost of 1.010 and sell at 1.005 plus bonus shares of 1 for 5. Mission accomplished since the original intention is to trade and lock in short term gain. Gain 10-15% within a month. Sigh “phew…phew..phew” when price slide to a low of 0.615 and company request for trading halts. Listen to star bloggers some more?

China Aviation & China Merchant  – China stocks plunge in June. Government intervene and stocks rebound. Sell entirely CAO at 0.79 and later CMP at 1.02 to lock in profits 10-15%. Rebalance to keep cash and look for more defensive stocks in anticipation of the pessimism.

AIMS AMP – Rebalance portfolio to reduce exposure in Reits. Sell entirely at 1.485. Profit close to 10% including dividend received for past 1 year.  

Suntec Reit – Rebalance portfolio to reduce exposure in Reits. Sell entirely at 1.66. Profit >20% including dividends received for past years. Including a major sale done in last Oct (Refer here) at 1.97 and several other sales earlier, Suntec gave me a return of 50-55% in total in less than two years i.e. >25% p.a. I will continue to keep Suntec in my Top watchlist and accumulate if price is attractive enough to warrant entry. My very own “star stock” base on my own sentiments…I Love it!  

Mapletree Log Tr – Sell entirely at 1.02, lower than my entry price of 1.09. Including dividends, recorded marginal return of 1-2%. Happy not  to make loss.

Fraser Com Tr – Sell entirely at 1.42 with my entry price of 1.31. Including dividends, it recorded return close to 10% pa.  

Sembcorp Ind  – Bite teeth and sell at a price of 3.35. My average cost is 4.6. Hefty loss of 25%! Pessimism in O&G continues and decided that I should not hold on to something that is not suitable for me. I was influenced by star analysts / bloggers in the first place and this is EXACTLY the punishment I got! I deserve it! I am thankful it happens to me now, and the ability of me to cut losses for something I am uncomfortable with, signals a major step forward in my investment learning journey.

"BUY"

Comfort Delgro – Accumulated few lots average 3.05. Damn it….should do after the plunge this week. Haha, what to do, you cannot time the market, but I somehow quite like this transport company! Keep in Top watch list for now!  

CapitaRetail China Tr – Oh Dear… accumulated few lots at 1.64 before the great devaluation plunge. Again you cannot time the market, so no regrets. 

Coca Cola Amatil (ASX) – Nibble less than 1 lot before the plunge. Damn it again! So far, it is already recording double digit paper loss due to AUD and CNY currency decline. Haha, but I do sleep well with my coca cola drinks can beside my bed.

Asian Pay TV – Due to the deemed more defensive local TV consumption in Taiwan and attracted by the yield, I added few lots at 0.83 before the big plunge.

SGX – Added 1 lot before the big plunge of last two weeks at 7.83. 

OCBC – Buy 1 lot before the Yuan devaluation at 10.25… Damn it! Average down at 9.3. Sliding down more. Ohhh…..!  

UOB – One week after Yuan devaluation, I go against my Broker advice not to buy any shares during this time. I grab less than 1 lot at 20.25. Same “Damn it” story. Haha.

Fraser Cpt tr Due to the deemed more defensive local suburban malls during crisis, I added few lots at 1.975. Go below 1.9 on Friday. Move this counter to my Top Watch list.  

CURRENT PORTFOLIO

1
ARA Asset Mgt (D1R)
2
Asian Pay TV Tr (S7OU)
3
CapitaR China Tr (AU8U)
4
Coca Cola Amatil (CCL)
5
ComfortDelGro (C52)
6
Croesus Rtrust (S6NU)
7
Ezion (5ME)
8
Fraser Cpt Tr (J69U)
9
KrisEnergy (SK3)
10
Lippo Mall Tr (D5IU)
11
OCBC (O39)
12
Overseas Edu (RQ1)
13
Raffles Medical (R01)
14
SGX (S68)
15
Starhub (CC3)
16
Super Group (S10)
17
Swissco Hldg (ADP)
18
UOB (U11)
19
Vicom (V01)
20
Woolworths (WOW)

Rolf’s Final Thoughts

Please please please…readers! READ AND FORGET all the Blog articles with Stocks Buy/Sell contents including very much my own blog articles! Most bloggers/analysts will buy and sell before you do! That is why I choose to update only after a few months my buy and sell, so as not to mislead the readers. Actions can be suitable for the particular blogger but not for you. Nobody knows your emotional or pain threshold except yourself.

You may asked, then why am I blogging here about my buy and sell? For me, this is a way to record and remind myself of my stupidity sometimes. Like when I buy into Oil and Gas shares when it first decline, thinking that because I am in the industry for more than 10 years, I know alot. MY FOOT! hahaha....

Therefore this is also a platform for me to admit any wrong if I did, and start learning. Which star bloggers / analysts will openly write that they give wrong advice and admit? Most people prefers to live in delusion as that is the place they find most comfortable! 

One biggest misconception in “newbie investors” is only to think about winning in the games of stocks. Anyway, this is what most professional financial adviser also advocates! Double digit returns p.a., most investors/bloggers when they just started already think they are better than professional stock investors...

A friend recently tells me that he was a better investor 2-3 years ago than now, because before he earn money and now his stock starts declining and recorded paper loss.  You may think this is funny but it isn’t. In fact, even many very (“temporary”) successful people sometimes think likewise in their life. This is called “Fool by Randomness” . Read my article here.

Investment is a long journey. Be patient, you cannot get rich overnight. Even if you can, Money “Easy Come, Easy Go!” Trust me, I have seen enough examples of very rich people, not able to sustain their wealth over the years, if what they earn is not deservingly belonging to them in the first place! 

It is better to know our ourselves and develops our own investment style over the years. Be patient (I repeat) and learn about the business, people and story behind each of stock. For me, I never think that investment in stocks will be the tool for me to earn S$XX and retire in YY years. Investing in stocks is my interest and hobby. It is a place where I can learn more about various businesses and how they evolve over the years.

Strangely, I also think that investment has huge correlation to our life journey. It advocates the principles of “Know Yourself”, “Find Your Passion”, and “Invest in Yourself” for an enriched life. In fact “Rolf Suey” when its alphabets rearranged become “Yourself”. This is why my blog is called as it is, when I started it.











14 comments:

  1. Hi Rolf,

    Thank you for sharing your - again - very insightful thoughts.

    And congrats to selling a share despite a loss. This takes courage to change your mind when aced with information that disagrees with your initial views and you overcame the Endowment Effect.

    I constantly remind myself to change my mind when the facts change and ignore those who refuse to do the same.

    In the sense of: My opinions may have changed, but not the fact that I am right. haha

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Andy,

      Yes, congrats to myself. This is not the first time, I am selling at a loss. At least I do not need to see the physical money notes taken and pay out, which alleviate some pain.

      Yes, changes is essential.

      "A man who views the world the same at fifty as he did at twenty has wasted thirty years of his life" Muhammad Ali

      Delete
  2. Hey Rolf!

    Congrats on making delicious profits from the stocks u've sold off!

    I guess the plunge is no choice, everybody no matter who are affected by the series of event happening this 2 months!

    Anyway ur looking great there!

    Just to prove that i've came by :D


    Jeffrey

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Jeff,

      Nice to see you after a long time. :-) . The profits are not as delicious as the dreadful decline.

      It is still bearable now and hanging on. Hope you are doing great in your life too! never mind the investments, it should not affect our life too much.

      Delete
  3. Replies
    1. Haha..... yeah....many many more rounds to go.

      Delete
  4. Hi Rolf

    When Rolf sells SCI, everyone better run away from this stock right now!!!

    You are right. No one should listen to anybody. Decision is yours as is consequences.

    I'm actually quite surprised that you got into banks quite early. Did you see any value out there yet with banks? Just curious.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi B,

      I am selling Vicom next! haha.... You will pick it up right?

      I went into OCBC early before the so many bad news, because of the excess cash in disposal.

      After the devaluation, I punch my fist against the wall! Haha...

      Then came the devaluation news and then stocks rebound.. and I thought why not nibble less than 1 lot each. Not alot.

      Maybe I always think OCBC and UOB are one of the world's strongest bank and nothing too bad should happen to them. :-(

      Delete
  5. Gents, apologies updated the mistakes in FCOT sell. It should be 1.31 entry price not 1.09.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Hi rolf,

    I think investors who enter the market during a bear and during a bull will have entirely different mindset. I entered near a bear, lost a lot and is generally more cautious and skeptical about double digit returns than those who entered during the bull period. I guess we are a product of what we experienced. So no x returns in y years for me lol!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi LP,

      I have to congratulates and envy you to lost a lot. This is an invaluable experience. Frankly I still yet to see any true great successful people who never encounter a major setbacks in their life. Maybe x enlightenments in y life experiences seems more important than x $ in y years.

      I remember when I was younger, someone told me about big failure to learn. I do not concur and say "I only learn from other people mistakes. I will never commit any mistakes myself because I am extremely meticulous in everything I do..." I smile when I look back...

      Delete
  7. Hi Rolf,

    APTT current payout is unstainable if it doesn't grow its broadband or prenium TV business.

    Taichung must be closely watch, if it doesn't deliver the growth in basic cable TV. Then...

    Part of payout is from Loans. Hence unsustainable, it is not to say it is not a value buy but it's payout is not "defensive"

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi SI,

      Thanks for the heads up warning. I will take note.

      I reckon APTT is very similar to utility business or Starhub. In the next two years they will unlikely to grow and debts are higher just like Starhub due to investment in cable TV.

      Good thing is their ARPU is very low in Taiwan at s$20 with 150 channels unlike in Sg compare to Starhub or Singtel >s$50. In crisis, business goes on as I reckon more Taiwanese will then stay at home to watch tv.

      With Temasek as major shareholder, it provides a little bit peace of mind.

      Maybe you can refer to my earlier post:

      http://www.rolfsuey.com/2014/08/asian-pay-television-trust-more-insight.html?m=1

      But in anyway, I will not hold on to it
      indefinitely, depending on the pricing. Thanks!



      Delete