Sunday, 12 April 2015

My Portfolio – 1Q15 Review


(S$)
wk15/2015
wk52/2014
YTD % Change
STI Constituents
3,472
3,365
3.2%
Coca Cola Amatil
11.550
9.893
16.8%
Raffles Medical
3.880
3.910
-0.8%
Comfort Delgro
2.880
2.590
11.2%
CM Pacific
1.165
0.980
18.9%
ARA Asset Mgmt
1.640
1.675
-2.1%
CapitaRetail CT
1.725
1.600
7.8%
Lippo Mall Tr
0.355
0.340
4.4%
Sembcorp Ind
4.540
4.440
2.3%
Croesus RTrust
0.945
0.915
3.3%
Swissco
0.435
0.545
-20.2%
Mapletree Log Tr
1.240
1.170
6.0%
Overseas Edu
0.865
0.840
3.0%
Suntec Reit
1.855
1.960
-5.4%
Fraser Com Tr
1.510
1.420
6.3%
Asian Pay TV Tr
0.885
0.850
4.1%
Aims AMP Cap Reit
1.500
1.425
5.3%
Super Group
1.495
1.165
28.3%
CAO
0.855
0.660
29.5%
SGX
8.210
7.820
5.0%
OUE
2.170
2.020
7.4%
Courts Asia
0.440
0.475
-7.4%
Ezion
1.090
1.155
-5.6%
Starhub
4.400
4.140
6.3%
Kris Energy
0.510
0.650
-21.5%
  
The above table shows my 24 stocks portfolio, all listed in SGD. It is listed in order of descend in terms of % allocation. This means, Coca Cola Amatil (CCL) is my largest portfolio while KrisEnergy is the smallest.

STI

It has been a good start for STI this year. The index rallied to 3,472 closed this week, a 3.2% increase YTD.

My Major Portfolios

Coca Cola Amatil (CCL) is listed in ASX. It is my largest portfolio one of the top performers since the start of the year. In AUD, this counter escalated from A$9.3 end last year to A$11.0 now, denoting a >18% rise. But for reasons that A$ has weakened against S$ since start of the year, overall share price increase were negated to >16%. Refer more on CCL here.

My second biggest portfolio Raffles Medical (RMG) remains fairly unchanged YTD. RMG is looking forward to twin engines of growth by 2016. 1) Extension of current Hospital facilities 2) Launching of a new 5-storey building at Holland Village. Refer more on RMG here and here.

Since start of the year, both Comfort Delgro and CM Pacific have shown stellar performances in its share price, climbing to double digit % gain. For Comfort, reasons could be the drop in oil price, reducing petrol cost, as well as future revenue from rail Downtown Line (DTL) phase 2 opening in 1Q16 and phase 3 by mid-2017. For CMP, the rise may be supported by its strong balance sheet and attractive dividend yield, with potential headroom for more toll acquisitions. It could also be attributed to the recent bull’s run in the China stock markets.

ARA price remains fairly unchanged. Short term resistances stem from interest rate increase and new MAS regulations imposing stricter rules on managers’ fees. In the long term, we derives confidence inferring from its past ten years yoy impressive increase in earnings, led by strong management. Refer here for more of ARA.

Yield Stocks

For Reits and Trusts stocks such as Asian Pay TV Tr, AIMS AMP Cap REIT, CapitaRetail CT, Fraser COT, Lippo MIRT, Mapletree Log Tr and Suntec Reit, I had set a conservative target of minimum 5% dividend yield on cost. So far, all are on target and above. So I am happy.

Other Portfolios

Retail climate in Singapore is still poor with high cost from labour tightening.  Courts Asia last quarter’s earnings is badly affected by forex loss and losses from opening of Indonesia Bekasi megastore. Weaker MYR also does not help. After Apr 15, retail revenue in Malaysia may be affected due to GST implementation.  

Super Group was one of my most depressed stocks last year. Since start of the year, the stock had rebounded with an impressive 28% increase in share price. Reasons could be the reduction of coffee price, Branded Consumer (BC) revenues back on track and Food Ingredient (FI) margin expansion. There is also a one-time gain from sale of factory premises, strengthening balance sheet.

Share price of Overseas Education rise 3%. Sentiments fairly neutral. On the negative, it is likely due to the continual rising expenses and potential students leaving the schools in new semester due to new campus locations. On the positive, the new campus in Pasir Ris has completed last month ahead of schedule in May15. Management believed most students should stay on after relocation from Orchard to Pasir Ris. New facilities, higher capacity (from 3940 to 4800) and potential of fees hike should outshine the negatives. 

OUE has risen >7%. The catalyst is likely because of RNAV due to assets transferred into its REITs. I might consider to take profits, since most of the quality assets were already re-injected into the REITs. 

SGX and Starhub are stocks in my SRS account, investing on a longer horizon up to retirement – maybe? Their short term results do not bother me too much.

Oil and Gas Stocks

It requires no explanation how depressed the O&G industry is now due to the plummeted oil price. Sembcorp still remained relatively unchanged, buoyed by the utilities sector and its Marine Division’s ability to still receive O&G orders. Swissco tumbles >20% YTD painfully. Worries are rife, due to its rig fleet’s existing charters with the troubled Mexico PEMEX cancelled/not-renewed, as well as oversupply in OSV market. Similarly, Ezion may frown over the feasibility and profitability of its liftboat charters with other oil companies. Nevertheless, within the gloomy O&G industry, I believe Liftboat is one sector that still emits light. KrisEnergy constitutes less than 1% of my portfolio, therefore I shall not go into the details. 


Stocks Added / Removed

I have not added many new stocks this year. The only new addition is China Aviation Oil (CAO). Refer why I added CAO here. CAO has achieved an astonishing close to 30% increase YTD. Since start of my purchase, it has risen over 20% within less than 3 months. I had also divested Vallianz entirely due to the gloominess in O&G.


Rolf's Summary 

Overall, I am happy with the performance of my portfolio except for the depressed O&G stocks. 

Since the start of the year, I had further increased my cash position from 20% of Stock Portfolio cost last year to more than 30% this year. 

Two reasons. First, to take advantage of any potential bearish situation. Second, I anticipate more time to be spent in my career this year than on my personal investments, so less invested monies.  



7 comments:

  1. Hi Rolf

    Solid ytd gains there. Seems like you've done well for the first quarter.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi B,

      Thanks and I am sure you did well too. Let's hope this is sustainable which for now, seems like a mini-euphoria ongoing in China stock markets.

      Delete
  2. Replies
    1. Hi Jimmy,

      Rojak mix! Looking to reduce the numbers to have more focus!

      Delete
  3. hi Rolf, your portfolio consists so many shares.

    next time i show you mine, give some opinion.

    hahaha.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Yeh,

      Look forward to it. Just drop me a line.

      Delete
  4. I read this article and its give me good information and how to review paper thanks for share it paraphrasing website free .

    ReplyDelete